February 7, 2007
Okay, I'll preface this by saying that I absolutely guarentee 100% accuracy. Being the genius that I am, I will accept no less. Once reality sinks back in, I'll reflect upon my less-than-stellar record up to this point this year and begin being reasonable. But until then, I will continue to talk of my soon-to-be perfect predictions!
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters to Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
We may as well start with the big one. I genuinely feel this is between Iwo Jima and The Departed. I just think that The Queen feels too small. And Little Miss Sunshine is just way too light-hearted to win the big one, not to mention its lack of a direction nomination all but removes it from the running. I don't care if it did win the SAG ensamble award, regardless of what others may say, this is not comprible to the Best Picture. Just ask Sideways, Gosford Park, Traffic, The Full Monty, The Birdcage, and Apollo 13. Birdcage wasn't even a nominee, and Monty, Park and Sideways really weren't exactly top contenders for the Best Picture prize. So don't think Sunshine has a shot just because of this award. Now, Babel has a shot at an upset, you can't dismiss the Globe-winner as not having a legitimate shot, it does. But it may be a little too heavy and too depressing to garner enough support to go all the way to the top. Even depressing solemn dramas like Crash and Million Dollar Baby have enough humor in them to keep the audience from totally crumbling into a pile of depression. And whereas the critics who make up the HFPA like this kind of stuff, actors and lighting tech guys I'm guessing are less keen on it. Which is why I'm narrowing this down to Iwo Jima and Departed. Iwo Jima feels so current with another confusing war looming over us, and everybody loves Clint Eastwood. But The Departed is so fun and is possibly the most enjoyable film of the year. But since merit has nothing to do with anything at the Academys, I'll throw that arguement out the window. It's time to give a Scorsese flick a Best Picture win. I'm going with The Departed.
Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Letters to Iwo Jima
Peter Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
I'm not going to waste anyone's time. This is Scorsese's year.
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
If there's one category safer than Best Director, it's Best Actress. This is Helen Mirren's year.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Persuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
I really thought DiCaprio had a real shot at this, until his nomination turned out to be for Blood Diamond instead of for The Departed. Diamond just didn't seem as embraced by the Academy, and I don't believe they'll name it the best performance of the year when it wasn't even DiCaprio's best performance of the year. And they don't give this award to kids who are their film's only nomination, so whether he deserves it or not, Gosling won't make up the handicap he's fighting. He'll have plenty of chances in the future (I'm guessing this is how the Academy will rationalize it). Then we have Will Smith, who refuses to shed his mainstream schlock image, continually doing eye candy films like I, Robot. Doing big, studio pictures is okay once in while, especially if it has artistic merits or is directed by Spielberg, but if you're going be an Oscar-winner, these have to be kept to a relative minimum (unless your name is Reese Witherspoon). The only man who has a genuine shot at upsetting the favorite, that being Globe-winning, SAG-winning, Critic's Choice-winning, NYFCC-winning, LAFCA-winning Forest Whitaker, is Peter O'Toole, and that's because he's Peter O'Toole. As a long-respeced actor with films like Laurence of Arabia on his resume, yet is without an Oscar, could be given the win, based solely on his career achievements. And it's not like it would be the first time the Academy has done this. But for my money, I'll stick with the favorite. Whitaker is a respected actor, too, with a nice resume, that the Academy shouldn't be the least bit ashamed of the phrase "Academy-Award winner Forest Whitaker."
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchette, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
I cannot believe that the Academy would give this award to a non-actor. Being able to sing in a musical doesn't make you a great actor, and I'm just shocked that people haven't caught on to this. Maybe the movie was way better when she was in it, but charisma is not the same thing as great acting. I just don't get it, but inevitably, Jennifer Hudson is the commanding favorite. Supporting actresses who are actually leads despite their categorization do generally have an edge, but the same could be said of Blanchette's performance. However, the stigma on Blanchette is her recent win. Having won an Academy Award only two years ago for The Aviator kind of unofficially disqualifies her from winning one for a while, just ask Russell Crowe, the deserving winner of the 2001 award, but lost, partly because he won only the year before, and the Academy wasn't ready to name him the next Tom Hanks. So, because of this stigma, the very deserving Blanchette will have to act pleasently pleased for soemone else. Abigail Breslin won't break the child stigma, being the overwhelming underdog. And it's not likely that an unheard of foreign actress can actually win, no matter how deserving. Actors like Roberto Benigni and Sofia Loren were global stars before winning their awards, and an actor like Benicio Del Toro was already established in American cinema (they were the only acting winners in the past twenty years to come from a country other than America, Great Britian, Australia or some other English-speaking country). I don't believe Barazza or Kikuchi can break that curse. Jennifer Hudson will probably end up winning.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Jackie Earl Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Here, Murphy is obviously the favorite, but I was sure he was going to get upset, that is until the SAG awards. His winning the Actor says that people inside the industry are willing to give him an award, all the awards before that were from critics, people outside of the industry. I was under the impression that his fellow actors and directors didn't look favorably toward him, being the difficult artist he is. But the Actor award debunks this, so now I'm not so sure. But first, let's make eliminations. Mark Wahlberg, as good as he was, was only one piece of a great cast, thus he didn't really stand out from everybody else. And his role really was a bit part, and Wahlberg just isn't quite as respected as Judi Dench. As much as Hollywood loves the comeback, Haley probably isn't going to turn into the movie star that John Travolta did (who also lost) after his "comeback" film. He must be happy with creating his comeback around his nomination. The other two contestants do have a good shot at an upset. Hounsou is a respected past nominee who has a great resume including his nominated performance in In America, along with such films as Amistad and Best Picture winner Gladiator. Blood Diamond wasn't embraced enough to win an award as big as a lead performance, but a supporting is entirely possible. Meanwhile, there's Arkin with his third nomination, who really does provide the heart of a genuinely sweet film with a character that could have easily come across as creepy. A respected vet in a Best Picture nominee should never be counted out. I see this as a heated three-man race. I do have the reputation of picking the upset in the Best Actress category, only to end up being entirely wrong, but this year, anyone who picks against Mirren is a fool. So I'll have to pick my upset in this category instead. I'm going with Arkin to upset Murphy.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Sasha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd Philips, Borat
Alfonso Cuaron, Timothy J Sexton, David Arata, Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby, Children of Men
William Monahan, The Departed
Todd Field, Tom Perrotta, Little Children
Patrick Marbur, Notes on a Scandal
Monahan has an obvious advantage, being the only Best Picture nominee in this group. However, Todd Field (In the Bedroom) and Patrick Marbur (Closer) are really gaining respect in this industry, each of whom have written two Academy nominated characters this year. However, I will say the Academy will not reward either a heavily improvised film or a glorified action flick (although the same might be able to be said about The Departed). But in the end, the clever plot lines and fascinating characters of The Departed should give Monahan his first award.
Best Original Screenplay
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sushine
Guillermo Arriaga, Babel
Guillermo del Toro, Pan's Labyrinth
Peter Morgan, The Queen
Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis, Letter From Iwo Jima
This time, we have del Toro at a obvious disadvantage, being the only nominee not having written a Best Picture nominee. Don't worry, it will win a couple other awards. And war films don't fare very well in the screenplay category, unless you count films like Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, The Pianist, and Schindler's List, which aren't really about a war, but use one as a backdrop. Even Saving Private Ryan and Braveheart couldn't win. I'm thinking Iwo Jima will have no more success. Peter Morgan is the Globe winner, but I don't see it overpowering the vast characters pieces that are Babel and Little Miss Sunshine. This is a toss-up. Arriaga gained lots of critical praise for both Amorres Perros and The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada. He could do it, but I think there's more support for Sunshine, especially after not only its SAG ensamble win, but its producer's guild win. I'm going with Arndt.
Best Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
For the longest time, I was convinced Happy Feet had this in the bag, but Cars has made an incredible comeback. After winning the Golden Globe, the Critic's Choice Award, the award from the National Board of Review, and the PGA Award for Best Animated Feature plus nine Annie nominations, it seems to have taken the lead from Happy Feet, which has the New York Film Critics Circle as its only major win, and recieved only two Annie nominations. Not to mention, Cars is the only animated film to get an additional Academy nomination, which is a pretty sure-fire precursor. So, against all my previous instincts, I've got to go with Cars.
Best Documentary Feature
Delivery Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq In Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country
When one film in one the more "minor" categories integrates itself so completely into pop culture, chances are it will win. An Inconvenient Truth is this year's March of the Penguins. This would be a major upset, and I don't have the balls to predict an upset in this category.
Best Foriegn Language Film
After the Wedding, Denmark
Days of Glory, Algeria
The Lives of Others, Germany
Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
Water, Canada
Could something possibly upset Pan's? With six nominations, it seems to be overwhelmingly clear that this struck a chord with the Academy, and Volver, its only real competition, didn't even get nominated. There's the ever-lasting example of Amelie, which received four additional nominations. The last upset before that was probably Character's defeat over Four Days in September at the 1997 awards, and it's not like September was a six-time nominee. I don't see an upset happening here this year.
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
Guillermo Navarro, Pan's Labyrinth
Wally Pfister, The Prestige
Dick Pope, The Illusionist
Vilmos Zsigmond, The Black Dahlia
With no Best Picture nominees among the list, this could be anyone's award. So who has the biggest name? This is Lubezki's fourth nomination without having won yet, this could be his year, as Men was very acclaimed, and this could be its best shot at winning, since I decided it won't win the Best Adapted Screenplay category. This is Navarro's first nod after 16 years of consistant work for a film the Academy obviously loved. This is Pfister's secong consecutive nod, but genre films have the disadvantage, as he knows from last year's loss. This is Pope's first nomination after two-and-a-half decades in the industry. His work on The Illusionist is probably the showiest of the bunch. And this is Zsigmond's fourth nod in the past 30 years, having won on his first nod for Close Encounters of the Third Kind. However, the phrase "Academy Award-winning Black Dahlia" just doesn't make sense to me. Really, this is pretty open, but I'm thinking the fantastic work in the respected Children of Men will work out well for Lubezki finally.
Best Editing
Babel, Douglas Crise and Stephen Mirrione
Blood Diamond, Steven Rosenblum
Children of Men, Alfonso Cuaron and Alex Rodriguez
The Departed, Thelma Schoonmaker
United 93, Clare Douglas, Richard Pearson and Christopher Rouse
Well, we have two Best Picture nominees, so they have to be considered the favorites, right? And weaving plot lines together is generally regarded as good editing, like Crash, right? And besides, Schoonmaker just won two years ago for The Aviator. Does that matter? Usually this goes to a Best Picture nominee, if not the winner, in fact, in the past 15 years, The Matrix is the only film to overcome this obstacle, I'm sticking with this trend. The team from Babel it is.
Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls, John Myhre and Nancy Haigh
The Good Shepard, Jeannine Claudia Opponwall, Gretch Rau and Leslie E Rollins
Pan's Labyrinth, Eugenio Caballero and Pilar Revuelta
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest, Rick Heinrichs and Cheryl Carasik
The Prestige, Nathan Crowley and Julie Ochipinti
So, both Chicago and Moulin Rouge won this award, so that makes Dreamgirls the front-runner, right? But then again, so did Lord of the Rings, Crouching Tiger and Sleepy Hollow, so that means fantasy films do well here, so Pan's Labyrinth is the front-runner, right? It should be one or the other, I'm going with the fantasy film.
Best Costume Design
Consolata Boyle, The Queen
Milena Canonero, Marie Antionette
Sharen Davis, Dreamgirls
Patricia Field, The Devil Wears Prada
Chung Man Yee, The Curse of the Golden Flower
Most films that win this award are period pieces that take place in the early 1900's like Memiors of a Geisha, Chicago, Moulin Rouge, Topsey-Turvey, Titanic, and The English Patient. That's a pretty consistant trend. However, none of these films falls in this time period, Marie and Flower are older, the others are more recent. So, I'm going to have to go with something more random. How about the film about fashion, in which all the characters make a point to dress all stylish and stuff.
Best Make-up Effects
Apocalypto, Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
Click, Kazuhiro Tsuji and Bill Corso
Pan's Labyrinth, David Marti and Monte Ribe
Doesn't Click seem a little out of place? They aged everyone well, and convincingly made Sandler look fat, but that's old news, isn't it? So do we go with Apocalypto's violent wounds or Labyrinth's fantastical creatures. Just like Narnia beat Cinderella Man and Lord of the Rings beat Master & Commander, I'll take Labyrinth to beat Apocalypto.
Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest, John Knoll, Hal T Hickel, Charles Gibson, Allen Hall
Poseidon, Boyd Shermin, Kim Libreri, Chas Jarrett, John Frazier
Superman Returns, Mark Stetson, Neil Corbould, Richard R Hoover, Jon Thum
"Academy Award-winning Poseidon"? "Academy Award-winning Superman Returns"? I don't think so. Pirates wins.
Best Sound Effects Editing
Apocalypto, Sean McCormack and Kami Asgar
Blood Diamond, Lon Bender
Flags of Our Fathers, Alan Robert Murray and Bob Asman
Letters From Iwo Jima, Alan Robert Murray and Bob Asman
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest, Christopher Boyes and George Watters II
The way I see it, Iwo Jima is a Best Picture nominee, it's got to win something! This may as well be its category, and it being a war flick, it's not a bad way to go anyway.
Best Sound Mixing
Apocalypto, Kevin O'Connell, Greg P Russell and Fernando Camara
Blood Diamond, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ivan Sharrock
Dreamgirls, Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie D Burton
Flags of Our Fathers, John T Reitz, David E Campbell, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest, Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes and Lee Orloff
Is this seriously the year that not only Martin Scorsese, Helen Mirren and Emmanuel Lubezki win an Academy Award after a career of great work, but also Kevin O'Connell, the Academy's biggest loser? Maybe, but remember that Ray and Chicago also won, so the Academy thinks music is the same as good sound mixing. That's my rationale.
Best Score
Alexandre Desplat, The Queen
Philip Glass Notes on a Scandal
Javier Navarrete, Pan's Labyrinth
Thomas Newman, The Good German
Gustavo Santaolalla, Babel
Is the Academy ready to reward Glass, even though he's all weird with his music, after two previous losses? Or Thomas Newman after seven previous losses, especially since he heavily deserved one for his work on American Beauty. Honestly, Santaolalla's music was probably the most memorable, but can he really win back-to-back Oscars? Or there's Globe winner Desplat. This is all over the map, even budding star Navarrete wouldn't be surprise. Throw a dart, it'll be more accurate than I will. I'm going with Santaolalla.
Best Song
Melissa Ethridge, "I Need to Wake Up," An Inconvenient Truth
Henry Kreiger, Scott Cutler and Anne Preven, "Listen," Dreamgirls
Henry Kreiger and Siedah Garrett, "Love You I Do," Dreamgirls
Henry Kreiger and Willie Reale, "Patience," Dreamgirls
Randy Newman, "Our Town," Cars
"Listen" won from the BFCA, was nominated for a Globe (only to lose to Prince who was not Academy-nominated) and a Satellite (only to lose to Chris Cornell who also was not nominated by the Academy). I figure it will probably win, deserving or not.
So, my totals include:
Best Picture: The Departed
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Best Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Best Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed
Best Animated Feature: Cars
Best Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Best Foreign-Language Film: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
Best Editing: Douglas Crise and Stephen Mirrione, Babel
Best Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero and Pilar Revuelta, Pan's Labyrinth
Best Costume Design: Patricia Field, The Devil Wears Prada
Best Make-up: David Marti and Monte Ribe, Pan's Labyrinth
Best Visual Effects: John Knoll, et al, Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Sound Effects Editing: Alan Robert Murray and Bob Asman, Letters From Iwo Jima
Best Sound Mixing: Michael Minkler, et al, Dreamgirls
Best Original Score: Gustavo Santaolalla, Babel
Best Original Song: Henry Kreiger, et el, "Listen," Dreamgirls
This shapes up like last year, where no movie won more than three awards, but four movies won three awards. I believe the Academy is heading toward a share-of-the-wealth mentality, and the days of films like The English Patient winning everything are becoming farther and farther away. So I have Academy champ The Departed winning a total of three, along with Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth, while Babel and Little Miss Sunshine each win two. It makes sense to me.
But then again, what the hell do I know?